Publish in this journal
Journal Information
Vol. 23. Issue 4.
Pages 290-301 (01 July 2019)
Share
Share
Download PDF
More article options
ePub
Vol. 23. Issue 4.
Pages 290-301 (01 July 2019)
Masterclass
DOI: 10.1016/j.bjpt.2018.12.006
Understanding and interpreting confidence and credible intervals around effect estimates
Visits
930
Luiz Hespanhola,b,c,
Corresponding author
l.hespanhol@outlook.com

Corresponding author at: Masters and Doctoral Programs in Physical Therapy, Universidade Cidade de São Paulo (UNICID), Rua Cesário Galeno, 448 Tatuapé, CEP 03071-000, São Paulo, SP, Brazil.
, Caio Sain Vallioa, Lucíola Menezes Costaa, Bruno T Saragiottoa
a Masters and Doctoral Programs in Physical Therapy, Universidade Cidade de São Paulo (UNICID), São Paulo, SP, Brazil
b Department of Public and Occupational Health (DPOH), Amsterdam Public Health Research Institute (APH), VU University Medical Center (VUmc), Amsterdam, The Netherlands
c Amsterdam Collaboration on Health and Safety in Sports (ACHSS), Academic Medical Center/VU University Medical Center IOC Research Center, Amsterdam, The Netherlands
Highlights

  • Confidence intervals (CI) measure the uncertainty around effect estimates.

  • Frequentist 95% CI: we can be 95% confident that the true estimate would lie within the interval.

  • Bayesian 95% CI: there is a 95% probability that the true estimate would lie within the interval.

  • Decision-making should not be made considering only the dichotomized interpretation of CIs.

  • Training and education may enhance knowledge related to understanding and interpreting CIs.

This item has received
930
Visits
Article information
Abstract
Full Text
Bibliography
Download PDF
Statistics
Figures (3)
Show moreShow less
Tables (2)
Show moreShow less
Abstract
Introduction

Reporting confidence intervals in scientific articles is important and relevant for evidence-based practice. Clinicians should understand confidence intervals in order to determine if they can realistically expect results similar to those presented in research studies when they implement the scientific evidence in clinical practice. The aims of this masterclass are: (1) to discuss confidence intervals around effect estimates; (2) to understand confidence intervals estimation (frequentist and Bayesian approaches); and (3) to interpret such uncertainty measures.

Content

Confidence intervals are measures of uncertainty around effect estimates. Interpretation of the frequentist 95% confidence interval: we can be 95% confident that the true (unknown) estimate would lie within the lower and upper limits of the interval, based on hypothesized repeats of the experiment. Many researchers and health professionals oversimplify the interpretation of the frequentist 95% confidence interval by dichotomizing it in statistically significant or non-statistically significant, hampering a proper discussion on the values, the width (precision) and the practical implications of such interval. Interpretation of the Bayesian 95% confidence interval (which is known as credible interval): there is a 95% probability that the true (unknown) estimate would lie within the interval, given the evidence provided by the observed data.

Conclusions

The use and reporting of confidence intervals should be encouraged in all scientific articles. Clinicians should consider using the interpretation, relevance and applicability of confidence intervals in real-world decision-making. Training and education may enhance knowledge and skills related to estimating, understanding and interpreting uncertainty measures, reducing the barriers for their use under either frequentist or Bayesian approaches.

Keywords:
Biostatistics
Confidence intervals
Evidence-based practice
Physical therapy specialty
Statistical data analysis

Article

These are the options to access the full texts of the publication Brazilian Journal of Physical Therapy
Subscriber
Subscriber

If you already have your login data, please click here .

If you have forgotten your password you can you can recover it by clicking here and selecting the option “I have forgotten my password”
Contact
Phone for subscriptions and reporting of errors
From Monday to Friday from 9 a.m. to 6 p.m. (GMT + 1) except for the months of July and August which will be from 9 a.m. to 3 p.m.
Calls from Spain
932 415 960
Calls from outside Spain
+34 932 415 960
Email
Idiomas
Brazilian Journal of Physical Therapy

Subscribe to our newsletter

Article options
Tools
en pt
Cookies policy Política de cookies
To improve our services and products, we use "cookies" (own or third parties authorized) to show advertising related to client preferences through the analyses of navigation customer behavior. Continuing navigation will be considered as acceptance of this use. You can change the settings or obtain more information by clicking here. Utilizamos cookies próprios e de terceiros para melhorar nossos serviços e mostrar publicidade relacionada às suas preferências, analisando seus hábitos de navegação. Se continuar a navegar, consideramos que aceita o seu uso. Você pode alterar a configuração ou obter mais informações aqui.